empty
02.01.2025 01:27 PM
What Awaits Precious Metals in 2025?

This image is no longer relevant

In 2025, many developed countries will continue lowering interest rates, but the pace of these reductions will depend on regional and economic conditions. In the United States, the Federal Reserve plans to act more cautiously than other central banks. The Fed forecasts only two rate cuts this year, fewer than previously expected. This cautious approach stems from the relatively stable U.S. economy and persistent inflation.

Most major banks have lowered their interest rate expectations. Fixed-income analysts at Bank of America agree with the Fed's forecast of two rate cuts. Banking holding company Wells Fargo is slightly more conservative, predicting only one rate cut this year. However, Canadian multinational investment bank TD Securities predicts four rate cuts, estimating that the federal funds rate will drop to 3.50% by year-end. Meanwhile, U.S.-based investment company BlackRock believes Treasury yields will rise by year-end, as the Fed is unlikely to aggressively cut rates.

Not all analysts, however, are confident that the U.S. economy can withstand geopolitical uncertainties and the unintended consequences of policies proposed by President-elect Donald Trump.

This image is no longer relevant

Ahead of his inauguration, Trump threatened to impose trade tariffs on nearly all major global economies. These tariffs would promote domestic production and support the U.S. dollar, but the policy comes with costs and could exacerbate existing inflationary pressures. In short, Trump's presidency implies higher U.S. inflation and weaker global growth. However, if Trump's tariff threats remain just that—threats—the world's economic growth rate, considering high U.S. inflation and migration policies, might slightly underperform its 3% trend.

Banking experts predict that if Trump's tariff plan materializes, its effects will only begin to be felt in Q3 2025. Regarding the Fed's monetary policy and its impact on precious metals, many analysts expect shifting rate expectations to create short-term obstacles and volatility for precious metals. Limited Fed rate cuts will support the U.S. dollar, posing another significant challenge for precious metals.

Nevertheless, analysts in commodities remain confident that gold will surpass $3,000 per ounce by year-end.

Additionally, the correlation between gold and Treasury yields, and even the U.S. dollar, has broken down as central banks continue purchasing large volumes of precious metals for reserves. Trump's tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties are likely to amplify the ongoing dedollarization trend among central banks in emerging markets.

In conclusion, the global economy is entering a period of heightened uncertainty, requiring flexibility from central banks. Geopolitical risks may pose challenges to global development. Despite short-term hurdles, the precious metals market will continue to attract investments, especially amid dedollarization and geopolitical instability.

Irina Yanina,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

O dólar estava bem intencionado. Mas as coisas correram como de costume

Cuidado com o que você deseja. O desejo de Donald Trump de tornar os Estados Unidos grandes novamente e retornar a uma era de ouro está saindo pela culatra, corroendo

Marek Petkovich 17:37 2025-04-22 UTC+2

A perda de confiança no Fed pressionará o dólar (é provável que o Bitcoin continue subindo e que o USD/CAD caia)

Na segunda-feira, o mercado de ações dos Estados Unidos sofreu uma queda acentuada, arrastando diversas bolsas globais, à medida que as ações "turbulentas" do presidente Trump continuam a transitar

Pati Gani 17:22 2025-04-22 UTC+2

Mercado: Águas paradas são profundas

É impossível injetar capital em uma economia desestabilizada pela política. O capital continua a fluir para fora dos Estados Unidos, e os ataques de Donald Trump ao Federal Reserve apenas

Marek Petkovich 17:08 2025-04-22 UTC+2

Em que prestar atenção em 22 de abril? Uma análise dos eventos fundamentais para iniciantes

Não há eventos macroeconômicos programados para terça-feira — nem nos EUA, nem na zona do euro, nem na Alemanha, nem no Reino Unido. Portanto, mesmo que o mercado estivesse atento

Paolo Greco 16:12 2025-04-22 UTC+2

Será que Trump demitirá Powell?

O índice do dólar americano renovou sua mínima de três anos nesta segunda-feira, caindo para a faixa dos 97 pontos — pela primeira vez desde março de 2022. A moeda

Irina Manzenko 15:54 2025-04-22 UTC+2

Por que o dólar americano continua a cair

O dólar dos Estados Unidos caiu para o nível mais baixo desde janeiro de 2024, após críticas do presidente Donald Trump ao Federal Reserve levantarem preocupações sobre a independência

Jakub Novak 14:55 2025-04-22 UTC+2

EUR/GBP. Análise e previsão

O par EUR/GBP recua nesta sessão, após dois dias consecutivos de ganhos, sendo negociado próximo ao nível psicológico de 0,8600. A libra encontra suporte no otimismo em torno das negociações

Irina Yanina 13:54 2025-04-22 UTC+2

Libra esterlina: Previsão semanal

Vários relatórios interessantes foram divulgados no Reino Unido, mas tiveram pouco impacto nas ações dos participantes do mercado. A demanda pela libra esterlina aumentou em todos os cinco dias, exceto

Chin Zhao 15:23 2025-04-21 UTC+2

Dólar americano: Previsão semanal

Com base na análise do EUR/USD, concluo que o par continua construindo uma nova fase de tendência de alta. As ações de Donald Trump reverteram a tendência de baixa anterior

Chin Zhao 15:16 2025-04-21 UTC+2

EUR/GBP. Análise e previsão

O fortalecimento do par está vinculado ao aumento do euro em meio à fraqueza do dólar dos E.U.A., impulsionado por preocupações sobre uma possível recessão nos E.U.A. e questões sobre

Irina Yanina 15:05 2025-04-21 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.