Analisis Forex & Kajian: 25.03.2024 - USD/JPY: trading scenarios on...

25.03.2024 03:46 PM

USD/JPY: trading scenarios on March 25, 2024

After reaching a local high of 151.86 last week, the USD/JPY pair today remains within a range between the levels of 150.30, 151.00, and 151.80 for the third consecutive trading day.

The important short-term support level (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart) also passes through the 150.30 mark. Therefore, a breakthrough of the 151.00 mark, followed by 150.30, could signal the start of a downward correction.

Considering the pair's overall bullish trend, this correction may be limited by support levels at 149.33 (200 EMA on the 4-hour chart) and 149.00 (50 EMA on the daily chart).

Only a breakthrough of the key support level at 146.00 (200 EMA on the daily chart) could lead the price into the zone of the medium-term bearish market, which could make short positions preferable.

For now, above the support levels of 151.00 and 150.30, preference should be given to long positions. In this case, a breakthrough of the local resistance at the 151.50 mark could be the first signal for new long positions, with a breakthrough of the 151.86 mark confirming it.

From a technical point of view, USD/JPY continues to trade in a bullish market zone, medium-term—above the key support level of 146.00 (200 EMA on the daily chart), and long-term—above the key support level of 130.50 (200 EMA on the weekly chart). Thus, both from a technical and fundamental point of view, long positions remain preferable for now.

Support levels: 151.00, 150.30, 150.00, 149.33, 149.00, 148.00, 147.20, 147.00, 146.00, 145.10, 145.00

Resistance levels: 151.50, 151.86, 152.00, 153.00

Trading scenarios

Main scenario

Aggressive: Buy at market, Buy Stop 151.60. Stop Loss 150.80

Moderate: Buy Stop 152.10. Stop Loss 151.40

Targets 153.00, 154.00, 155.00

Alternative scenario

Aggressive: Sell Stop 150.90. Stop Loss 151.60

Moderate: Sell Stop 150.20. Stop Loss 151.10

Targets 150.00, 149.33, 149.00, 148.00, 147.20, 147.00, 146.00, 145.10, 145.00

"Targets" correspond to support/resistance levels. This also does not mean that they will necessarily be reached, but they can serve as a guide when planning and placing trading positions.

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