empty
InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing
InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
14.02.2025 12:45 AM
The Euro is Tired of War
Open trading account Open demo account

If the Federal Reserve can afford to slow down monetary expansion, why shouldn't the European Central Bank do the same? Statements from Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel suggest that, as the ECB approaches a neutral level, it should proceed with caution. Additionally, rumors of negotiations to end the armed conflict in Ukraine have helped the EUR/USD pair withstand strong U.S. inflation data and launch a counteroffensive. However, on its first attempt, the pair failed to make significant upward progress.

ECB Rate Dynamics

This image is no longer relevant

When hostilities broke out in Eastern Europe in February 2022, the euro was trading above $1.14, with expectations of continuing its rally due to recovering domestic demand after the pandemic. However, disruptions in oil and gas supplies from Russia triggered an energy crisis, prompting the EU to increase military spending while cutting back on other budgetary allocations. This led to a capital flight from Europe, causing the EUR/USD exchange rate to fall below parity by autumn 2022.

If a peace agreement is reached between Moscow and Kyiv, we could see a decline in defense expenditures, a drop in energy prices, and reduced geopolitical risks that would restore investor interest in the Eurozone. Recently, a phone conversation between the U.S. and Russian presidents sparked a rally in the euro and other European currencies.

Although this may be just the beginning of a peace negotiation process, the fact that initial steps have been taken is having a positive impact on risk assets and contributing to a weakening of the U.S. dollar, which is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven currency.

However, uncertainty remains. The positions of Moscow and Kyiv are still far apart, and Donald Trump's unpredictability means he could potentially derail the process at any moment. As a result, the upward movement of EUR/USD is unlikely to be linear. Many obstacles still lie ahead for the bulls, with significant challenges including U.S. protectionist policies and forecasts from the futures market that predict only one Fed rate cut in 2025. Notably, the December FOMC projections included expectations for two acts of monetary easing.

Market Rate Forecasts for the Fed

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

There is still considerable uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump's tariff policies. If the U.S. president chooses to implement reciprocal tariffs instead of universal ones, trade partners may reduce entry barriers for American goods. This could potentially accelerate international trade rather than slowing it down, benefiting the global economy and pro-cyclical currencies like the euro. Given the various possible scenarios, the EUR/USD pair is likely to remain in a medium-term consolidation until more clarity emerges.

From a technical perspective, the daily EUR/USD chart indicates that bullish traders attempted to activate a minor 1-2-3 pattern to extend the correction. The first attempt to break resistance at 1.0435 was unsuccessful; however, a successful second attempt could present long opportunities. Conversely, if the price drops below the pivot level of 1.0355, it would signal a return to short positions.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Analytical News
US Market News Digest for April 18 Donald Trump ratcheted up his criticism against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, once again calling for an immediate interest rate cut. This renewed political pressure adds to the tensions surrounding
Ekaterina Kiseleva
12:09 2025-04-18 +02:00
2395
Analytical News
When Giants Fall: How Alphabet and UnitedHealth Decisions Hurt the Market Trading on U.S. stock markets ended in disarray on Thursday, with positive news from tech giants and pharma companies colliding with interest rate concerns. Market participants wavered between hopes
Thomas Frank
11:56 2025-04-18 +02:00
2125
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

The Market Taken Hostage

Will the White House cross the Rubicon by initiating the dismissal of Jerome Powell from his position as Chair of the Federal Reserve? That would deal another blow to financial
Marek Petkovich 09:16 2025-04-18 UTC+2

Why Are Markets Frozen and What Are They Waiting For? (There is a possibility of continued Bitcoin and Ethereum consolidation in sideways ranges)

Today is Good Friday, a day Christians observe worldwide across all denominations. Market activity has noticeably decreased ahead of the Easter holiday, but this isn't the main reason for market
Pati Gani 09:00 2025-04-18 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on April 18? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are no macroeconomic events scheduled for Friday—not in the US, the Eurozone, Germany, or the UK. Therefore, even if the market were paying any attention to the macroeconomic backdrop
Paolo Greco 06:51 2025-04-18 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – April 18. Powell's Speech: Nothing Positive for the Dollar

The GBP/USD currency pair continued to trade relatively calmly on Thursday, showing only a minimal downward bias. We still can't classify the current movement as a "pullback" or "correction."
Paolo Greco 03:48 2025-04-18 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – April 18: The ECB Predictably Cut Rates, and the Market Predictably Ignored It

The EUR/USD currency pair spent most of the day moving sideways. When the European Central Bank meeting results were released, the market saw a small emotional reaction, but nothing fundamentally
Paolo Greco 03:48 2025-04-18 UTC+2

The Dollar Undid Everything Itself

He meant well, but it turned out the usual way. Donald Trump firmly believes that tariffs can replace income tax, generate massive revenue for the budget, and bring about
Marek Petkovich 03:39 2025-04-18 UTC+2

XAU/USD: Analysis and Forecast

Gold is undergoing a corrective pullback today as traders take profits following its recent surge to a new all-time high. This decline, although moderate, is driven by several factors, including
Irina Yanina 12:00 2025-04-17 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Analysis and Forecast

regarding upcoming changes in monetary policy from both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). Anticipation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the ECB—its
Irina Yanina 11:55 2025-04-17 UTC+2

Is the Euro Ready for Another Rate Cut?

We'll find out very soon whether the euro is once again prepared for the European Central Bank (ECB) to continue easing monetary policy. Today, the ECB is expected to lower
Jakub Novak 11:38 2025-04-17 UTC+2

Powell Sees a More Restrictive Fed Policy This Year

The euro showed little reaction, while the pound slipped slightly against the U.S. dollar following yesterday's speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. According to Powell, the Fed is currently
Jakub Novak 11:34 2025-04-17 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 01:00 2025-04-23 UTC--4
Powell in danger? Can Trump fire Fed Chair and what does that mean for markets?
08:43 2025-04-18
News
Relevance up to 02:00 2025-04-21 UTC--4
Why Are Markets Frozen and What Are They Waiting For? (There is a possibility of continued Bitcoin and Ethereum consolidation in sideways ranges)
09:00 2025-04-18
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 03:00 2025-04-23 UTC--4
The Market Taken Hostage
09:16 2025-04-18
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 01:00 2025-04-21 UTC--4
US market: Trump blasts Fed Chair Powell, but stocks hold steady
10:34 2025-04-18
Stock Markets
Relevance up to 03:00 2025-04-22 UTC--4
Markets swing between euphoria and panic
09:55 2025-04-17
Fundamental analysis
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.