Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro

The test of the 1.0295 price coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had moved significantly downward from the zero level, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I refrained from selling the euro and was correct. Strong data hindered the pair's downward momentum in the first half of the day.

Economic data from Germany exceeded economists' forecasts, briefly renewing demand for the euro. However, this momentum may be short-lived, given the upcoming speeches by Federal Reserve representatives, which market participants will follow closely. Statements from FOMC members could significantly influence expectations for future monetary policy. If Harker, Barkin, and Bowman confirm that the Fed has no plans to ease policy soon, this could strengthen the dollar, resuming the EUR/USD downtrend. Persistent inflation and robust employment data already suggest that rates may remain high longer than anticipated. A continued hawkish tone from the Fed, coupled with the ECB's discussions about potential rate cuts, could further widen the policy divergence between the two central banks, potentially weakening the euro against the dollar.

Investors will also assess the durability of the US economy in the face of high-interest rates.

Intraday Trading Strategy

The focus will be on the execution of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

• Scenario #1: Buy the euro at a price around 1.0317 (green line on the chart) with a target at 1.0354. At 1.0354, plan to exit the market and consider selling the euro in the opposite direction for a movement of 30-35 points. The euro's growth today could depend on dovish comments from Fed officials.Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero level and just beginning to rise from it.
• Scenario #2: Another buying opportunity arises after two consecutive tests of the 1.0295 level, provided the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Expected targets are 1.0317 and 1.0354.

Sell Signal

• Scenario #1: Plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.0295 level (red line on the chart), targeting 1.0262. At 1.0262, consider exiting the market and opening buy positions for a rebound of 20-25 points. Selling pressure may increase following hawkish comments from Fed officials.Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero level and just starting to decline from it.
• Scenario #2: Another selling opportunity arises after two consecutive tests of the 1.0317 level, provided the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. Expected targets are 1.0295 and 1.0262.

Chart Details

• Thin green line: Entry price for buying the instrument.
• Thick green line: Projected price for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for selling the instrument.
• Thick red line: Projected price for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: Important to monitor overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes

Beginner traders in the Forex market must exercise caution when making entry decisions. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If trading during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially when trading large volumes without proper money management.

For successful trading, a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above, is essential. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.